Lies, Gosh Darn Lies, and Not Enough Good Statistics: Why Epidemic Model Parameter Estimation Fails

Daniel E Platt; Laxmi E Parida; Pierre Zalloua

Perhaps the best way to acquire the necessary parameters would be a prospective longitudinal study cohorts in multiple jurisdictions. Enrollment should be randomized, reflect regional characteristics such as sex and age, and the criteria should be shared across populations participating in the study. During the course of the study, subjects will be monitored for changes in status a) from susceptible to incubating recording dates of exposure (if possible), b) to infectious (symptomatic or asymptomatic, with a clearly defined standard for determining possible "infectious" condition) conversion and dates, c1) for asymptomatic to symptomatic conversions and dates or c2) recovery dates, d) symptomatic to recovery conversion dates, or e1) hospitalization dates, e2) recovery from hospitalization dates, e3) ICU admission dates, e4) ICU recovery date, e5) ventilator treatment start date, e6) ventilator recovery date, e7) date of death. A record of how each subject moves through the model compartments, together with time distributions, can provide phenotypic parameters that modelling alone cannot, offering insight into the biology, response of the disease to medications, comorbid conditions, demic characterizations, and other features relevant to the impact of COVID-19.