Author: Bingyi Yang; Justin Lessler; Huachen Zhu; Chaoqiang Jiang; Jonathan M. Read; James A Hay; Kin On Kwok; Ruiyin Shen; Yi Guan; Steven Riley; Derek A.T. Cummings
Title: Life course exposures continually shape antibody profile and risk of seroconversion to influenza Document date: 2020_1_16
ID: cyxn7dpw_119
Snippet: We compared the predicted probability of seroconversion to four recent strains with the observed proportion of seroconversion among age groups binned by 10 years, in order to examine the model performance in predictions. We examined the uncertainty of prediction with the interquartile of predicted probability of each age group and derived 95% CI of observed proportion of seroconversion assuming a binomial distribution. Predictions and observation.....
Document: We compared the predicted probability of seroconversion to four recent strains with the observed proportion of seroconversion among age groups binned by 10 years, in order to examine the model performance in predictions. We examined the uncertainty of prediction with the interquartile of predicted probability of each age group and derived 95% CI of observed proportion of seroconversion assuming a binomial distribution. Predictions and observations showed good consistency, and both were with great uncertainty (figs. S18 and S19). There were two age groups with high predicted probability but low observed proportion of seroconversion when assuming a linear association between age and seroconversion ( fig. S18 ), which was due to the edge effect of age that can be accounted by a spline term on age (figs. S9 and S19).
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