Analysis of the mitigation strategies for COVID-19: from mathematical modelling perspective

Semu Kassa; Hatson John Boscoh Njagarah; Yibeltal Adane Terefe

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04. 15.20066308 doi: medRxiv preprint easily contained, measures such as; physical/social distancing (which reduces the rate of disease 528 transmission directly from human to human), improved personal hygiene (which reduces the rate of 529 disease transmission from the environment to humans), and minimal shedding of the pathogen into 530 the environment by both asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals, have the greatest potential of 531 slowing the epidemic. We further observed that increased decay of the pathogen from the environment 532 (achieved by disinfecting surfaces) is less significant in reducing/curbing the number of cases. 533 We further observed that having high numbers of people with knowledge from previous similar When providing the mitigation strategies, we did not account for the delay between the actual 551 incidence and the point when cases are confirmed since the actual parameters describing such a delay 552 are not known. In health systems where testing of suspected cases is done after individuals show 553 symptoms or on demand, it is likely to have a big gap between the actual incidence and confirmation 554 of new cases. The impact of the delay between actual incidence and confirmation of case can be 555 explored in future work. In addition, we assumed that all individuals who recover, do so with the 556 same level of immunity. However, this may not necessarily be the case since immunity of individuals 557 is affected by a number of factors including age, cortisol levels and nutrition among others. The 558 impact of differentiated levels of immunity on the disease dynamics and potential resurgence of 559 the epidemic can be explored in the future when relevant data becomes available. Our model did 560 not include the possibility of vaccination or treatment. We however acknowledge their importance 561 in controlling the infection. Therefore, optimal control of infection in presence of these mitigation 562 strategies can be explored in the as some of the relevant data become available.