Analysis of the Worldwide Corona Virus (COVID-19) Pandemic Trend;A Modelling Study to Predict Its Spread

Muhammad Qasim; Waqas Ahmad; Minami Yoshida; Maree Gould; Muhammad Yasir

For China, the mean ratio (η) increased significantly from the 1 st day of new cases reported and in its current state has almost stabilised (Figure 2c-i) . The predicted count for new cases in next 30 days found 8,1381 lower bound value and 240,951 (0.2 million) at the maximum limit. (Figure 2c-ii) . The mean ratio (η) value trend for the city of origin of COVID-19, Hubei China showed two high outbreaks one at the end of January and another in mid-February 2020, while current trend has stabilised (Figure 2c-iii) . While the predicted number of cases according to its mean ratio (η) were found of 67,829 with lower bound limit and a maximum upper limit of 191,787 cases would be expected within the next 30 days. (Figure 2c-iv) .