Analysis of the Worldwide Corona Virus (COVID-19) Pandemic Trend;A Modelling Study to Predict Its Spread

Muhammad Qasim; Waqas Ahmad; Minami Yoshida; Maree Gould; Muhammad Yasir

Early, rapid and large scale testing of every suspected case of COVID-19 is critical to contain and prevent its further transmission as has been emphasized by WHO. 26 COVID-19 has been declared a pandemic and has affected 197 countries and territories to date, with a total of 372,757 confirmed cases and 16,231 deaths reported 2 and this is increasing by the day. To predict the further spread of COVID-19 worldwide, we used mathematical modelling to draw relevant information to help international organisations and countries to plan their policies and implement measures accordingly. According to our model the mean ratio (η) for new cases in China, Republic of Korea has stabilised and they have contained the virus but still for Korea, the mean ratio (η) of the potential number of new death cases still remains at 0.48 there are more deaths expected. But the expected number of cases will be low in coming days. This shows that quarantine, social distancing, and the isolation of infected populations can successfully contain the pandemic. Despites all such measures China and Korea will still at risk as there are the possibility of reoccurrence 12 due to the COVID-19 ability to cause reinfection in recovered patients. Similarly some cases can be still hidden and act as carrier and silent spreader. As the symptoms can present as pneumonia and have an incubation period of 14 days so it is expected that many hidden cases are waiting to resurface. But at the same time it has been reported that COVID-19 infectivity gradually decreased in the tertiary patients which is a good sign to contain further spread. 8 Therefore, all precautionary measures are required to remain active for longer periods of time until a vaccine finally becomes available.