Making sense of the Global Coronavirus Data: The role of testing rates in understanding the pandemic and our exit strategy

Rahul Potluri; Deepthi Lavu

As mentioned the position of any given country on the pandemic curve is important in determining population level projections and since we proposed that testing rates have an impact on projections we adjusted all projections to the combined case per test and death per test rates of all the countries that have performed over 100000 tests. This analyses is shown in table 4. We also felt that projections should be done on the case per test and death per test rate for South Korea given the countries position on the pandemic curve and are shown in table 4 [22] [23] [24] . Both these analyses are biased in terms of predications for total deaths for countries with larger populations. For example in spite of the case per test and deaths per test rate being low in India, as the population of the country is large, the projections are still over 10 millions deaths as per table 4 (adjustment according to countries which have performed more than 100,000 tests) and 500,000 deaths as per table 5 (South Korea adjustment).