Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 containment strategies with considerations for limited medical resources

Brydon Eastman; Cameron Meaney; Michelle Przedborski; Mohammad Kohandel

Specifically, we see from Figure 4 that in Ontario, the Distancing-SEIRD model predicted the total number on deaths over a six month period with no social distancing to be as high as 130,000 people. In contrast, the most strict case of social distancing, with 80% adherence, led to a drastic reduction in the death toll -to under 1000 total deaths over the first six months. Unfortunately, Quebec has experienced higher numbers of COVID-19 cases, indicating that the progression of the pandemic is further along than in Ontario. Consistently, the Distancing-SEIRD model predicted that social distancing measures will lead to a less drastic reduction in deaths compared to Ontario. Despite this reduction, the importance of social distancing measures is still evident in Quebec: the simulations indicated that strict social distancing measures could lead to nearly 30,000 less deaths over a six-month span, compared to no social distancing. Studies attempting to estimate the level of adherence to social distancing policies have reported that approximately 60% of people are practicing social distancing in Ontario and 70% in Quebec [6] . Our Distancing-SEIRD model indicates that if social distancing continues at these levels for a six month period (until mid-September) the combined amount of lives saved in Ontario and Quebec alone is approximately 90,000.