Author: Ashleigh Tuite; David N Fisman; Amy L Greer
Title: Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission and mitigation strategies in the population of Ontario, Canada Document date: 2020_3_26
ID: e4pr78n0_11
Snippet: We developed an age-structured compartmental model that describes COVID-19 transmission in the province of Ontario, Canada. We used a modified 'Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered' framework that incorporated additional compartments to account for public health interventions, different severities of clinical symptoms, and hospitalization risk. An overview of the model compartments and movements between them is provided in Figure 1 and model .....
Document: We developed an age-structured compartmental model that describes COVID-19 transmission in the province of Ontario, Canada. We used a modified 'Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered' framework that incorporated additional compartments to account for public health interventions, different severities of clinical symptoms, and hospitalization risk. An overview of the model compartments and movements between them is provided in Figure 1 and model equations and additional details are provided in the Technical Appendix. The model was run for a period of two years and we assumed that recovered individuals remain immune from reinfection for the duration of the epidemic. Individuals remained infectious until they recovered or were hospitalized; we did not model transmission within healthcare settings. For simplicity, we assumed that all deaths occurred in cases requiring intensive care. We included cases in hospital and requiring intensive care to estimate health care requirements over the course of the epidemic. The model was constructed in R (13) .
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