Author: Ashleigh Tuite; David N Fisman; Amy L Greer
Title: Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission and mitigation strategies in the population of Ontario, Canada Document date: 2020_3_26
ID: e4pr78n0_27
Snippet: This would include cases of all severities. Attack rates were projected to be highest in those aged 5-14 years (77%, 95% CrI: 63-83%) and 15-49 years (63%, 95%CrI: 48-71). Lower attack rates were projected in individuals aged less than 5 years (50%, 95% CrI: 37-58%) and adults aged 50-69 years (47%, 95% CrI: 34-55) and greater than 70 years (30%, 95% CrI: 21-36). An example of the outbreak trajectory across model simulations is presented in Figur.....
Document: This would include cases of all severities. Attack rates were projected to be highest in those aged 5-14 years (77%, 95% CrI: 63-83%) and 15-49 years (63%, 95%CrI: 48-71). Lower attack rates were projected in individuals aged less than 5 years (50%, 95% CrI: 37-58%) and adults aged 50-69 years (47%, 95% CrI: 34-55) and greater than 70 years (30%, 95% CrI: 21-36). An example of the outbreak trajectory across model simulations is presented in Figure 2 . At the peak of the epidemic, in the absence of any resource constraints to provide care (i.e., assuming all cases requiring medical care receive it), we projected 107,000 (95% CrI: 60,760-149,000) cases in hospital and 55,500 (95% CrI: 32,700-75,200) cases in ICU. The high prevalence of cases in ICU reflects the mean length of ICU stay associated with COVID-19 infection in other countries.
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