Selected article for: "infected individual and total population"
Author: Lionel Roques; Etienne Klein; Julien Papaix; Samuel Soubeyrand
Title: Mechanistic-statistical SIR modelling for early estimation of the actual number of cases and mortality rate from COVID-19
  • Document date: 2020_3_24
    • ID: dqg8fkca_34
    Snippet: If the virus led to contaminate 80% of the French population [3] , the total number of deaths to deplore in the absence of variation in the mortality rate (increase induced for example by the saturation of hospital structures, or decrease linked to better patient care) would be 336, 000 (95%-CI : 192, 000 − 537, 000), excluding the number of deaths in the nursing homes. This estimate could be corroborated or invalidated when 80% of the populati.....
    Document: If the virus led to contaminate 80% of the French population [3] , the total number of deaths to deplore in the absence of variation in the mortality rate (increase induced for example by the saturation of hospital structures, or decrease linked to better patient care) would be 336, 000 (95%-CI : 192, 000 − 537, 000), excluding the number of deaths in the nursing homes. This estimate could be corroborated or invalidated when 80% of the population will be infected, eventually over several years, assuming that an infected individual is definitively immunised. It has to be noted that measures of confinement or social distancing can decrease both the percentage of infected individuals in the population and the degree of saturation of hospital structures.

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