Selected article for: "growth rate and SIR model"
Author: Lionel Roques; Etienne Klein; Julien Papaix; Samuel Soubeyrand
Title: Mechanistic-statistical SIR modelling for early estimation of the actual number of cases and mortality rate from COVID-19
  • Document date: 2020_3_24
    • ID: dqg8fkca_35
    Snippet: On the value of R 0 . The estimated distribution in France is high compared to recent estimates (2.0-2.6, see [3] ) but consistent with the findings in [16] (2.24-3.58). A direct estimate, by a nonmechanistic method, of the parameters (ρ, t 0 ) of a model of the formδ t = e ρ (t−t0) gives t 0 = 36 (February 5) and ρ = 0.22. With the SIR model, I (t) ≈ I (α − β) for small times (S ≈ N ), which leads to a growth rate equal to ρ ≈ Î.....
    Document: On the value of R 0 . The estimated distribution in France is high compared to recent estimates (2.0-2.6, see [3] ) but consistent with the findings in [16] (2.24-3.58). A direct estimate, by a nonmechanistic method, of the parameters (ρ, t 0 ) of a model of the formδ t = e ρ (t−t0) gives t 0 = 36 (February 5) and ρ = 0.22. With the SIR model, I (t) ≈ I (α − β) for small times (S ≈ N ), which leads to a growth rate equal to ρ ≈ α − β, and a value of α ≈ 0.32, that is to say R 0 = 3.2, which is consistent with our distribution of R 0 . Note that we have assumed here a infectiousness period of 10 days. A shorter period would lead to a lower value of R 0 .

    Search related documents:
    Co phrase search for related documents
    • direct estimate and growth rate: 1
    • estimate distribution and France estimate distribution: 1
    • estimate distribution and growth rate: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
    • estimate distribution and infectiousness period: 1
    • estimate distribution and low value: 1
    • estimate distribution and short period: 1, 2
    • estimate distribution and SIR model: 1, 2, 3
    • growth rate and α value: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
    • growth rate and infectiousness period: 1, 2
    • growth rate and low value: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
    • growth rate and short period: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16
    • growth rate and SIR model: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39
    • growth rate and small time: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
    • α value and low value: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
    • α value and short period: 1
    • α value and SIR model: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
    • infectiousness period and short period: 1, 2, 3, 4
    • infectiousness period and SIR model: 1, 2, 3
    • low value and SIR model: 1, 2, 3, 4