Method for Active Pandemic Curve Management (MAPCM)

Willem G Odendaal

The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055699 doi: medRxiv preprint 3) Available Control Mechanism: As the governing body of the population, we are able to relax mitigation on any segment on any day. Each segment will be infected at reproductive rate R om until mitigation for that segment is relaxed and it falls back to the higher reproductive number, R oh . 4) Infection Rate: If left at the initial mitigated state, the virus can infect the population of a segment to a maximum of I %m of the particular segment's population. If mitigation measures are lifted so R oh takes effect, the virus can infect the segment's population to a maximum of I %h . In general, I %h > I %m . In the example it is assumed that I % = 1 − 1 Ro . 5) Other Rules and Limitations: We are only able to switch each segment once or not at all. Once at R oh , we'll also assume the rate cannot be switched back to R om . (This is merely to frame the example, and may not be true in practice.) 6) Example with Proper Mitigation: Figure 6 shows the results 3 for two examples using moderate mitigation and R r = 8.2%. With curve management implemented, the mitigation measures in each of the segments are relaxed at precise intervals. The curves for each segments then add up to the thick black curve. 7) Example with Improper Mitigation: Figure 7 shows that when I % changes from I %m to I %h in the segments as mitigations are relaxed, there is no overall improvement over pure mitigation at R om , but still an improvement over herd immunity. The area under the reshaped curve is identical to the area under the herd immunity curve if mitigation in all segments were relaxed at some point.