Selected article for: "case ratio and reproduction number"
Author: Erida Gjini
Title: Modeling Covid-19 dynamics for real-time estimates and projections: an application to Albanian data
  • Document date: 2020_3_23
    • ID: ela022bo_17
    Snippet: while the effective reproduction number R(t) accounts for dynamic changes in β(t) due to intervention measures. In addition, the best-fitting model yields posterior credible intervals for the future course of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Albania. The Bayesian framework yields estimates for the best-fitting parameters as well as their posterior distributions ( Figure 3 ). The estimate for the median crude-case fatality ratio is 7%.....
    Document: while the effective reproduction number R(t) accounts for dynamic changes in β(t) due to intervention measures. In addition, the best-fitting model yields posterior credible intervals for the future course of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Albania. The Bayesian framework yields estimates for the best-fitting parameters as well as their posterior distributions ( Figure 3 ). The estimate for the median crude-case fatality ratio is 7%, 95%CI(0.02,0.13), similar to such crude estimates obtained in early dynamics in Wuhan (3), but higher than the 1-2% true case-fatality ratio expected if all (symptomatic and asymptomatic) cases are confirmed (7).

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