Modeling Epidemics: A Primer and Numerus Software Implementation

Wayne M. Getz; Richard Salter; Oliver Muellerklein; Hyun S. Yoon; Krti Tallam

The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. . https://doi.org/10.1101/191601 doi: bioRxiv preprint exit distribution is at the point of entry into the given disease class) can be obviated using a box-car model or distributed-delay approach. In these formulations, infected individuals pass through disease class E by passing through a sequence of disease subclasses E 1 , E 2 , ..., E r , before passing into the disease subclass sequence I 1 , I 2 , ..., I k , and then finally into disease class V [41] [42] [43] [44] . In this case, the exit distributions from E and I are no longer exponential, but are now Erlang (i.e., a subclass of the Gamma distribution). Further, the mode of the Erlang distribution becomes increasingly peaked and approaches the mean as the number of subclasses increases.