Modeling layered non-pharmaceutical interventions against SARS-CoV-2 in the United States with Corvid

Dennis L Chao; Assaf P Oron; Devabhaktuni Srikrishna; Michael Famulare

So far, few models of SARS-CoV-2 explicitly include key settings of transmission [10, 22] . We believe that these kinds of models are required to mechanistically simulate combinations of NPIs, which would be difficult to simulate without considering how these interventions target transmission in specific settings but may increase transmission elsewhere. However, human behavior in response to NPIs is difficult to model, and we believe that model results should be interpreted cautiously. Many of the population structure assumptions in Corvid were calibrated to match expert opinion on the relative importance of a few major settings (work, school, home, neighborhood) for seasonal influenza. As governments enact social distancing measures of unprecedented scale and duration and as public awareness of the dangers of COVID-19 increase, these assumptions might not hold and models should adapt. Despite these caveats, 9 . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.