Modeling the impact of human mobility and travel restrictions on the potential spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Taiwan

Meng-Chun Chang; Rebecca Kahn; Yu-An Li; Cheng-Sheng Lee; Caroline O Buckee; Hsiao-Han Chang

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID- 19) was first reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and has since caused a global pandemic, with over 500,000 confirmed cases and over 23,000 deaths reported by March 27, 2020. 1 Scientific discoveries have advanced at an unprecedented pace, with numerous clinical trials of drugs underway, 2 and a phase 1 vaccine trial beginning in Seattle. 3 Despite these advances, no pharmaceutical interventions are yet available. In the meantime, public health officials must rely on other interventions, such as social distancing and travel restrictions, to slow the spread and reduce the peak of the outbreak, in order to prevent health systems from being overwhelmed. 4, 5 In January 2020, as the epidemic in Wuhan grew, many countries implemented travel bans, and airlines canceled flights to attempt to slow the spread. 6 A number of studies have estimated the risk of importation globally, with some suggesting up to two-thirds of all imported cases went undetected. 7, 8 For Taiwan, there have been 267 reported cases as of March 27, 2020 9 , with 227 imported (85%) and 40 local cases (15%). 37 local cases (92.5 %) were linked to imported or known cases, and 3 local cases (7.5 %) have unknown origin.