Modelling strategies to predict hospital demand during the COVID-19 outbreak in Bogotá, Colombia

Claudia Rivera-Rodriguez; Beatriz Piedad Urdinola

The terms p U , p NoU and p H denote the probabilities that case requires ICU care, hospital non-ICU care and only home care, respectively. Note that p U + 110 p NoU + p H = 1. To estimate these probabilities, we follow [9] , assuming that critical cases require ICU, severe cases require hospital care, but not ICU and cases at home are mild. Their original estimates are p U = 0.05, p NoU = 0.14 and p H = 0.81, but we assume that 50% of cases at home are asymptomatic and therefore not detected. We recalculated the probabilities to be p U = 0.026, 115 p NoU = 0.134 and p H = 0.84 The parameter κ is the daily probability of an exposed individual becoming infected, and γ U , γ NoU , γ H are the daily probabilities 6 . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.