Modelling strategies to predict hospital demand during the COVID-19 outbreak in Bogotá, Colombia

Claudia Rivera-Rodriguez; Beatriz Piedad Urdinola

Transmission rate Stepwise function [10, 8] κ Daily probability of an exposed individual becoming infected: κ = 1/α, with α being the mean incubation period 1/5.2 [11] p U Probability of patient being ICU 0.026 [9] p NoU Probability of patient being in Hospital, but not ICU 0.134 [9] p H Probability of patient being mild/at home 0.84 [9] γ U Daily probability that an infected individual in ICU recovers, when the mean infection period is b U , γ U = 1/b U 1/7 [12, 11, 13] γ NoU Daily probability that an infected individual in Hospital, but no ICU recovers, when the mean infection period is b NoU , γ NoU = 1/b NoU 1/5 [11, 13, 14, 12] γ H Daily probability that an infected individual in Hospital, but no ICU recovers, when the mean infection period is b H , γ H = 1/b H 1/4 [11, 13, 14, 12] d Probability of dying given that patient is in ICU 0.50 [9] 7 . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.