Author: Robert Moss; James Wood; Damien Brown; Freya Shearer; Andrew J Black; Allen Cheng; James M McCaw; Jodie McVernon
Title: Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: emodr41j_25
Snippet: These figures do not accurately reflect the true requirement for services however, as blocks in assessment pathways resulting from emergency department and ward overload are an upstream constraint on incident ICU admissions. The alternative triage scenario (COVID-19 clinic) reveals a high level of unmet clinical need for both ward and critical care beds given baseline bed capacity (Figures 3A, 3B ). Case targeted measures overcome this limitation.....
Document: These figures do not accurately reflect the true requirement for services however, as blocks in assessment pathways resulting from emergency department and ward overload are an upstream constraint on incident ICU admissions. The alternative triage scenario (COVID-19 clinic) reveals a high level of unmet clinical need for both ward and critical care beds given baseline bed capacity (Figures 3A, 3B ). Case targeted measures overcome this limitation to some extent, and effectively improve overall access to care ( Figure 3A, 3B) . Overall, if ICU beds available to COVID-19 patients are doubled, between 10 and 30% of those who require critical care receive it. This proportion rises to approximately 20-40% if capacity increases by five-fold (Supplementary Figure 1A) . These figures are quantified as total excess demand per million over the course of the epidemic ( Figure 1B ).
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