Author: Patrick Brown; Prabhat Jha
Title: Mortality from COVID-19 in 12 countries and 6 states of the United States Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: 2r4uty9g_11
Snippet: We assumed the mean number of daily deaths for each setting to follow the shape of a skewnormal density function, which resembles a typical "bell-shaped" normal distribution with added skewness to permit an epidemic to rise fast but fall slowly (as has already been observed with COVID-19 deaths). 1-3 The observed deaths Yi(t) in region i on day t follows a negative binomial distribution with mean λi(t) and overdispersion parameter τ, or more sp.....
Document: We assumed the mean number of daily deaths for each setting to follow the shape of a skewnormal density function, which resembles a typical "bell-shaped" normal distribution with added skewness to permit an epidemic to rise fast but fall slowly (as has already been observed with COVID-19 deaths). 1-3 The observed deaths Yi(t) in region i on day t follows a negative binomial distribution with mean λi(t) and overdispersion parameter τ, or more specifically:
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