Author: Michal Ben-Nun; Pete Riley; James Turtle; David P. Bacon; Steven Riley
Title: National and Regional Influenza-Like-Illness Forecasts for the USA Document date: 2018_4_27
ID: cheiabv0_25
Snippet: weighting was equal to the value of the Pearson correlation between the observed data 231 in the current year and the historical data for the same period from the year used for 232 augmentation. We shifted from the historic data to the most similar data at epidemic 233 week 6 (EW06) when we subjectively determined that the current season is very 234 different from the historic average. The augmented data was also y-shifted so that it used for bot.....
Document: weighting was equal to the value of the Pearson correlation between the observed data 231 in the current year and the historical data for the same period from the year used for 232 augmentation. We shifted from the historic data to the most similar data at epidemic 233 week 6 (EW06) when we subjectively determined that the current season is very 234 different from the historic average. The augmented data was also y-shifted so that it used for both the coupled and uncoupled fits and also using a heated augmented 237 procedure (where the log-likelihood is again heated by a factor of ten During each of the CDC weeks DICE was used to fit both the regional and the national 242 most recent incidence data using the combinations of coupling, priors and models
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