New approximations, and policy implications, from a delayed dynamic model of a fast pandemic

Chandrika Prakash Vyasarayani; Anindya Chatterjee

In this context, we will present a new asymptotic multiple-scales solution for weak growth in a special case, and two informal long-wave approximations for moderate growth, all three solutions describing the complete evolution from infinitesimal infection to final saturation. These new approximations provide useful new analytical support and understanding that is not included within [9] . We will also discuss transient solutions and the role of initial conditions, in the context of a time-varying infection rate, using a six-state Galerkin approximation based reduced-order model obtained from the original delayed equations. Since social distancing affects the infection rate, we will demonstrate how, within the present model, properly executed social distancing can cut the total number of affected people by almost one half. A stronger case for early detection and quarantine will emerge simultaneously.