Author: TONI MONLEON-GETINO; Jaume Canela-Soler
Title: Next weeks of SARS-CoV-2: Projection model to predict time evolution scenarios of accumulated cases in Spain Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: 9h4pq7up_13
Snippet: Thus, for the first scenario (Figure 1) , to reach approximately 4,000 cases, the projective model indicates that it will take 78, 84 and 93 days to reach 90, 95 or 99% of the asymptote that in this case would be about 5 times the maximum number of cases (n = 4,000). For the worst-case scenario, it takes 118, 126 or 142 days to reach the maximum number of cases (n = 15,000). This means translated in a time scale that in the worst case the virus w.....
Document: Thus, for the first scenario (Figure 1) , to reach approximately 4,000 cases, the projective model indicates that it will take 78, 84 and 93 days to reach 90, 95 or 99% of the asymptote that in this case would be about 5 times the maximum number of cases (n = 4,000). For the worst-case scenario, it takes 118, 126 or 142 days to reach the maximum number of cases (n = 15,000). This means translated in a time scale that in the worst case the virus will not stop its progress until summer 2020, hopefully before. 3
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