Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions

Jonathan M Read; Jessica RE Bridgen; Derek AT Cummings; Antonia Ho; Chris P Jewell

We also estimated epidemic projections for other Chinese cities and countries/regions. The epidemic sizes projections are subject to model and parameter uncertainty, though the relative magnitude of predictions in other cities and countries/regions may be informative for planning and preparedness purposes.The model predicts infected travellers to other Chinese cities will initiate outbreaks in those cities, the largest on 29 January being in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu and Kunming; see Figure 3 and Table 1 . Our model predicts the total number of infected individuals in locations elsewhere in China to be 237 (prediction interval, 167-324) on 29 January. Finally, the model predicts an elevated risk of importations into other countries/regions, most notably to Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong SAR, USA, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia and Viet Nam; see Figure 3 and Table 1 . Again, these predictions assume no change in the transmission of the virus within China through control or other responses to the epidemic, and likely underestimate the potential importation rate to regions with ground transportation from China, in particular Hong Kong.