Author: Abdullah Ucar; Seyma Arslan; Muhammed Yusuf Ozdemir
Title: Nowcasting and Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 and Healthcare Demand In Turkey, A Modelling Study Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: cut3vf2c_20
Snippet: Transmission parameters used in the model were obtained from studies in the literature. Expert opinion was consulted for the parameters that could not be found in the literature. Average incubation period was accepted as 4.6 days for asymptomatic cases, 5.1 days for symptomatic cases and infectiousness period was accepted as 6.5 days for both groups. (8, 17) . Symptomatic cases were considered to be two times more infectious than asymptomatic. (8.....
Document: Transmission parameters used in the model were obtained from studies in the literature. Expert opinion was consulted for the parameters that could not be found in the literature. Average incubation period was accepted as 4.6 days for asymptomatic cases, 5.1 days for symptomatic cases and infectiousness period was accepted as 6.5 days for both groups. (8, 17) . Symptomatic cases were considered to be two times more infectious than asymptomatic. (8) . It is assumed that R0 values are between 2-3 for Turkey. (18, 19) . Considering that the study on the Diamond Princess ship was close to a prospective cohort design, the rate of asymptomatic cases was accepted as 17.8% in our study. (20) .
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