Prediction of COVID-19 Spreading Profiles in South Korea, Italy and Iran by Data-Driven Coding

Choujun Zhan; Chi K. Tse; Zhikang Lai; Tianyong Hao; Jingjing Su

We apply the aforedescribed procedure to the data obtained so far for cities in South Korea, Italy and Iran. These data represent the early stage of progression of the epidemic spreading, as the trends clearly show that the numbers of infected cases in most cities are still climbing, as of March 6, 2020. For each city or region, we identify a group of 10 profiles of best fit from the historical archive, and retrieve the corresponding sets of profile codes for generating the propagation profiles in the coming days. Using these 10 profiles, we produce an average progression profile, which is also accompanied by a deviation range at 95% confidence level. Other Iranian cities will see less than 1,000 eventual infected cases. Our prediction gives a total of 14450 ±6244 individuals eventually infected, which is 0.018% ±0.008% of the country's population. 5. Provided the authorities continue to impose strict control measures, the epidemic will come under control by the end of April and is expected to end before June 2020, and as the quality of treatment improves, more rapid recovery will be expected.