Selected article for: "basic reproduction and epidemic model"
Author: Rui Li; Wenliang Lu; Xifei Yang; Peihua Feng; Ozarina Muqimova; Xiaoping Chen; Gang Wei
Title: Prediction of the Epidemic of COVID-19 Based on Quarantined Surveillance in China
  • Document date: 2020_2_29
    • ID: jadzias9_10
    Snippet: Many academics tried to estimate key epidemiological characteristics and possible outcomes of the epidemic by means of transmission model mathematically.On Jan.24,2020,Jonathan M. Read 3 estimated the basic reproduction index(R0) for SARS-CoV-2 to be between 3.6 and 4.0,then and COVID-19 would outbreak further both in other Chinese cities and in international travel destinations sucn as Thailand,Japan,Taiwan,Hong Kong and South Korea at an sharpl.....
    Document: Many academics tried to estimate key epidemiological characteristics and possible outcomes of the epidemic by means of transmission model mathematically.On Jan.24,2020,Jonathan M. Read 3 estimated the basic reproduction index(R0) for SARS-CoV-2 to be between 3.6 and 4.0,then and COVID-19 would outbreak further both in other Chinese cities and in international travel destinations sucn as Thailand,Japan,Taiwan,Hong Kong and South Korea at an sharply increasing rate.According to his model,he predicted the number of infected individuals in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand by Feb. 14,2020 although with a 99% effective reduction as a result of trave restrictions,the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan might only be reduced by 24.9%.His model suggested that travel limitation from and to Wuhan city were unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China.

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