Predictions for COVID-19 outbreak in India using Epidemiological models

Rajesh Ranjan

Further, different countries have different norms as well as compliance levels due to practical considerations in enforcing the lockdown as shown in Remarks in Table 3 . This may affect the final outcome. For example, the growth in Italy is still not stabilized after 19 days of lockdown. They have also seen the highest percentage of death as well. A large population over 60 years of age may be a primary factor. On the other hand, Spain has shown signs of decline from March 25 but it may be too early to confirm that. According to an estimate by Chang et al. [19] for COVID-19 outbreak in Australia, a reduction in incidence and prevalence can be visible only if the social distancing compliance levels exceed 80%. Now, we focus on the impact of social distancing in India. India announced a strict lockdown on 24 March, when the number of reported cases was 536. Though on 22 March, India observed Janta Curfew (voluntary lockdown) and the public activity has been limited since that date.