Predictions, role of interventions and effects of a historic national lockdown in India's response to the COVID-19 pandemic: data science call to arms

Debashree Ray; Maxwell Salvatore; Rupam Bhattacharyya; Lili Wang; Shariq Mohammed; Soumik Purkayastha; Aritra Halder; Alexander Rix; Daniel Barker; Michael Kleinsasser; Yiwang Zhou; Peter Song; Debraj Bose; Mousumi Banerjee; Veerabhadran Baladandayuthapani; Parikshit Ghosh; Bhramar Mukherjee

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . mortality. 29 A recent pre-print found COVID-19 attributable mortality in countries with BCG policy is 6 times lower than those without a BCG policy in an ecological analysis, after accounting for country-specific confounders like economic status, percentage elderly (those aged ≥65 years) in the population, and relative position of each country along the epidemic trajectory. 17 However, the authors caution against over-interpretation of this negative association between BCG use and COVID-19 due to limitations of country-level analysis and many sources of unmeasured confounders. Another hypothesis is that much like the flu virus, summer temperatures will thwart the COVID-19 outbreak. Our analysis, based on current data, suggests we cannot rely on the hypothetical prevention (with inconclusive evidence) governed by meteorological factors and need public health actions, regardless of the seasonal weather.