Author: Marius Gilbert; Giulia Pullano; Francesco Pinotti; Eugenio Valdano; Chiara Poletto; Pierre-Yves Boelle; Eric D'Ortenzio; Yazdan Yazdanpanah; Serge Paul Eholie; Mathias Altmann; Bernardo Gutierrez; Moritz U. G. Kraemer; Vittoria Colizza
Title: Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against introductions of 2019-nCoV Document date: 2020_2_7
ID: 4i97fpzc_20
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.05.20020792 doi: medRxiv preprint in the 13 top priority list) that may be explained by different risk estimation approaches. In our assessment, we accounted for the distribution of incidence within China and the volume of travel from China with the passenger network. This strongly impacts the spatial pattern in the risk of introduction. .....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.05.20020792 doi: medRxiv preprint in the 13 top priority list) that may be explained by different risk estimation approaches. In our assessment, we accounted for the distribution of incidence within China and the volume of travel from China with the passenger network. This strongly impacts the spatial pattern in the risk of introduction. Yet, our data does not allow distinguishing between travel for tourism or business. Contrary to Europe, where the majority of cases so far were Chinese tourists, it may be expected that cases in Africa will be more business related, given the strong commercial links between African countries and China leading to frequent trips between the two continents.
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