Selected article for: "case number and total number"
Author: Emily Javan; Spencer J. Fox; Lauren Ancel Meyers
Title: Probability of current COVID-19 outbreaks in all US counties
  • Document date: 2020_4_11
    • ID: ciak3b36_2
    Snippet: By the time a first case of COVID-19 is reported in the county, we estimate that there is over a 50% chance that a full-blown epidemic is underway. We found 85% of US counties with 96% of the national population have reported at least one case ( Figure 1 ). Even counties that have not yet reported a confirmed case have an estimated 9% chance of sustained local transmission. If an epidemic is indeed underway, then our model predicts a delay of 7.5.....
    Document: By the time a first case of COVID-19 is reported in the county, we estimate that there is over a 50% chance that a full-blown epidemic is underway. We found 85% of US counties with 96% of the national population have reported at least one case ( Figure 1 ). Even counties that have not yet reported a confirmed case have an estimated 9% chance of sustained local transmission. If an epidemic is indeed underway, then our model predicts a delay of 7.5 (95% CI 3.9-16.3) weeks between the first reported case and the total number of COVID-19 exceeding 1,000; by the time the tenth case has been reported this lead time shrinks to 4.4 (95% CI 2.1-11.4) weeks (see Supplementary Appendix).

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