Selected article for: "case transmission and confirmed case"
Author: Emily Javan; Spencer J. Fox; Lauren Ancel Meyers
Title: Probability of current COVID-19 outbreaks in all US counties
  • Document date: 2020_4_11
    • ID: ciak3b36_2
    Snippet: By the time a first case of COVID-19 is reported in the county, we estimate that there is over a 50% chance that a full-blown epidemic is underway. We found 85% of US counties with 96% of the national population have reported at least one case ( Figure 1 ). Even counties that have not yet reported a confirmed case have an estimated 9% chance of sustained local transmission. If an epidemic is indeed underway, then our model predicts a delay of 7.5.....
    Document: By the time a first case of COVID-19 is reported in the county, we estimate that there is over a 50% chance that a full-blown epidemic is underway. We found 85% of US counties with 96% of the national population have reported at least one case ( Figure 1 ). Even counties that have not yet reported a confirmed case have an estimated 9% chance of sustained local transmission. If an epidemic is indeed underway, then our model predicts a delay of 7.5 (95% CI 3.9-16.3) weeks between the first reported case and the total number of COVID-19 exceeding 1,000; by the time the tenth case has been reported this lead time shrinks to 4.4 (95% CI 2.1-11.4) weeks (see Supplementary Appendix).

    Search related documents:
    Co phrase search for related documents
    • case county report and county report: 1
    • case county report and report case: 1
    • confirm case and report case: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
    • confirm case and total number: 1
    • confirm case report and report case: 1, 2, 3
    • county report and report case: 1
    • exceed total number and total number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
    • lead time and local transmission: 1, 2, 3
    • lead time and total number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
    • local transmission and national population: 1, 2, 3
    • local transmission and report case: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
    • local transmission and Supplementary Appendix: 1
    • local transmission and sustained local transmission: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24
    • local transmission and total number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16
    • national population and report case: 1
    • national population and total number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
    • report case and Supplementary Appendix: 1
    • report case and tenth case: 1
    • report case and total number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14