Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_32
Snippet: Finally, there is an individual mortality rate and a recovery rate. Both rates depend on many individual characteristics. At the aggregate level, they rise in the stock of sick individuals. We specify them as 23 (N 2 (t)) and 24 (N 2 (t)) with corresponding rates 23 and 24 ; respectively. 12 For our analysis below, we will assume that both rates are constants. Concerning recovery, we are aware that it strongly varies across age (e.g. Guan et al.,.....
Document: Finally, there is an individual mortality rate and a recovery rate. Both rates depend on many individual characteristics. At the aggregate level, they rise in the stock of sick individuals. We specify them as 23 (N 2 (t)) and 24 (N 2 (t)) with corresponding rates 23 and 24 ; respectively. 12 For our analysis below, we will assume that both rates are constants. Concerning recovery, we are aware that it strongly varies across age (e.g. Guan et al., 2020) and that recovery is not a state that is identical for each individual. As we abstract from ex-ante heterogeneity, we assume a recovery rate that is identical across individuals and that it takes on average n rec days until recovery. Given the exponential distribution of duration in each state, this means that 1= 24 = n rec or 24 = n 1 rec :
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