Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_6
Snippet: The study by an der Heiden and Buchholz (2020) is, to the best of our knowledge, the most elaborate study at this point for Germany. We share their belief that mathematical models help in studying the e¤ects of policy measures. Many parameters of their analysis are derived from knowledge on the epidemic in China and especially the city Shenzen. We calibrate many of our central parameters such that the model …ts the observations in Germany. We .....
Document: The study by an der Heiden and Buchholz (2020) is, to the best of our knowledge, the most elaborate study at this point for Germany. We share their belief that mathematical models help in studying the e¤ects of policy measures. Many parameters of their analysis are derived from knowledge on the epidemic in China and especially the city Shenzen. We calibrate many of our central parameters such that the model …ts the observations in Germany. We also share with them the approach of using SEIR models. Our paper emphasises the implications of the fundamental model assumptions for the prediction. We …nd below that the evaluation of policy measures crucially depends on these model assumptions. We make these model assumptions explicit in our paper and discuss the e¤ects of variations in these assumptions.
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