Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_78
Snippet: One of the concerns of individuals is that they might get infected. How large is this risk in a world without interventions? As this picture shows, the risk to get sick for each individual from (8) is very low throughout the entire epidemic. At the peak, the probability to get sick on a given day (red curve) is around 10 4 . In words, 1 person in 10,000 inhabitants turns sick per day. The probability to turn sick within a week (blue curve) is of .....
Document: One of the concerns of individuals is that they might get infected. How large is this risk in a world without interventions? As this picture shows, the risk to get sick for each individual from (8) is very low throughout the entire epidemic. At the peak, the probability to get sick on a given day (red curve) is around 10 4 . In words, 1 person in 10,000 inhabitants turns sick per day. The probability to turn sick within a week (blue curve) is of course larger and lies at the peak at around 7 in 10,000 individuals. We emphasize again that this is the number of sick individuals that are actually reported to the RKI.
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