Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period

Stephen M Kissler; Christine Tedijanto; Edward Goldstein; Yonatan H. Grad; Marc Lipsitch

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031112 doi: medRxiv preprint Table S4 . Peak simulated SARS-CoV-2 epidemic sizes, in units of percent influenza-like illness (ILI) x percent positive laboratory tests, by year for a representative set of cross immunities, immunity durations, and establishment times. Percent ILI is measured as the population-weighted proportion of visits to sentinel providers that were associated with influenza symptoms. The seasonality factor represents the amount of seasonal variation in the SARS-CoV-2 R0 relative to the other human betacoronaviruses. A seasonality factor of 1 indicates equal seasonal variation in R0 for SARS-CoV-2 as for the other human betacoronaviruses. Chi3X represents the degree of crossimmunity induced by infection with SARS-CoV-2 against OC43 and HKU1 and ChiX3 represents the degree of crossimmunity induced by OC43 or HKU1 infection against SARS-CoV-2. The establishment times correspond to: Winterweek 4 (early February); Spring -week 16 (late April); Summer -week 28 (mid July); Autumn -week 40 (early October). Darker shading corresponds to higher peak sizes.