Author: Spencer Woody; Mauricio Garcia Tec; Maytal Dahan; Kelly Gaither; Spencer Fox; Lauren Ancel Meyers; James G Scott
Title: Projections for first-wave COVID-19 deaths across the US using social-distancing measures derived from mobile phones Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: 87lxnslh_11
Snippet: As in the IHME analysis, our regression model connects each state's deathrate curve to covariates that describe social distancing within each state. Changes in each state's social-distancing covariates can "flatten the curve" by changing the peak death rate, the timing of that peak, and the deceleration in death rate near the peak. The strength of this approach is that it can leverage readily available data on social distancing without requiring .....
Document: As in the IHME analysis, our regression model connects each state's deathrate curve to covariates that describe social distancing within each state. Changes in each state's social-distancing covariates can "flatten the curve" by changing the peak death rate, the timing of that peak, and the deceleration in death rate near the peak. The strength of this approach is that it can leverage readily available data on social distancing without requiring a mechanistic transmission model. However, our model differs from the IHME model in at least three key ways, which collectively result in different forecasting behavior.
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