Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

LiXiang Li; ZiHang Yang; ZhongKai Dang; Cui Meng; JingZe Huang; HaoTian Meng; DeYu Wang; GuanHua Chen; JiaXuan Zhang; HaiPeng Peng

The cure time of the patient is the difference between the time of hospital discharge and the time of diagnosis, set to x5. During the epidemic period, the cure time of patients was expressed by Gaussian distribution, that is, D5~N(x5,y5), which means that it takes an average of x5 days for a single individual to be cured and discharged from hospital. During the early and late stages of the epidemic, depending on the medical condition and level of vigilance, there will be small changes to the x5. As the epidemic continued, people's awareness of self-protection became stronger, and hospital treatment became more effective in the late stage of the outbreak, the patient's recovery time became shorter and shorter. In Hubei Province, the average time from diagnosis to cure was 21 days.