Quantifying transmission of emerging zoonoses: Using mathematical models to maximize the value of surveillance data

Monique R. Ambrose; Adam J. Kucharski; Pierre Formenty; Jean-Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum; Anne W. Rimoin; James O. Lloyd-Smith

The geographic masking technique known as 'donut masking' was used to obscure the exact 1182 location of cases and preserve privacy. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It . https://doi.org/10.1101/677021 doi: bioRxiv preprint The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It . https://doi.org/10.1101/677021 doi: bioRxiv preprint The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It . https://doi.org/10.1101/677021 doi: bioRxiv preprint The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It . https://doi.org/10.1101/677021 doi: bioRxiv preprint The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It . https://doi.org/10.1101/677021 doi: bioRxiv preprint The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It . https://doi.org/10.1101/677021 doi: bioRxiv preprint The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It . https://doi.org/10.1101/677021 doi: bioRxiv preprint (2) 1201 A challenge in applying this likelihood function to surveillance data arises when the total 1202 number of localities under surveillance, V, is unknown. Instead, we observe W localities that 1203 have one or more observed cases. If we re-arrange the product functions in the likelihood 1204 function, it becomes more apparent that we are taking the product of the likelihood for each 1205 locality: 1206