Author: Dan Valeriu Nicolau; Alexander Hasson; Mona Bafadhel
Title: Recovery Ratios Reliably Anticipate COVID-19 Pandemic Progression Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: c6bc08kw_12
Snippet: With respect to the world as a whole, the respective plot (top left panel, covidwave.org) is difficult to interpret because it combines data from many countries with very different populations and at different epochs within the pandemic cycle. Nonetheless, one can identify a roughly 23 day lag between the first C:R peak (mainly mainland Chinese patients) and the first D peak (again mainly in Chinese patients), in keeping with our observations abo.....
Document: With respect to the world as a whole, the respective plot (top left panel, covidwave.org) is difficult to interpret because it combines data from many countries with very different populations and at different epochs within the pandemic cycle. Nonetheless, one can identify a roughly 23 day lag between the first C:R peak (mainly mainland Chinese patients) and the first D peak (again mainly in Chinese patients), in keeping with our observations above. The second wave, now a global one, appears to be peaking approximately at the time of writing (mid-April, 2020) while there concomitantly appears to be a reduction in the number of deaths per day globally. If sustained, this early relative recovery, together with the earlier peak, would indicate a final global number of COVID-19 fatalities in the order of 250,000.
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