Author: Toshihisa Tomie
Title: Relations of parameters for describing the epidemic of COVID?19 by the Kermack?McKendrick model Document date: 2020_3_3
ID: m0d72ntg_26
Snippet: The slower increase and the slower decrease at the skirt of the epidemic could suggest the transmission power β of the virus may change in time, which, we think, is not plausible. At present, we do not know the reason why the simple Kermack-McKendrick cannot reproduce the whole epidemic including the skirt parts. Thus, from the analysis of JpnInf2019 by the model described above, we learn that it is important to remember that the time constant o.....
Document: The slower increase and the slower decrease at the skirt of the epidemic could suggest the transmission power β of the virus may change in time, which, we think, is not plausible. At present, we do not know the reason why the simple Kermack-McKendrick cannot reproduce the whole epidemic including the skirt parts. Thus, from the analysis of JpnInf2019 by the model described above, we learn that it is important to remember that the time constant of the "apparent" increase of the epidemic in the early stage does not re-produce the whole epidemic.
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