RISK ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION FOR COVID19 DEMOGRAPHICS IN LOW RESOURCE SETTINGS USING A PYTHON DESKTOP APP AND EXCEL MODELS.

Ali Kyagulanyi; Joel Tibabwetiza Muhanguzi; Oscar Dembe; Sheba Kirabo

According to the Ministry of Health in Uganda, there are currently 30 confirmed cases of covid19. However, tensions remain high in the East African Community as neighboring countries Kenya, DRC and Rwanda have reported more cases. Governments in developed countries have invested a great amount of funds and put in place strict measures to safe guard their citizens, the biggest scare lies in low resource countries like Uganda, and WHO believes that African countries are not ready to battle the disease because of the undependable health care system. Planning and preparation of an inevitable outbreak has been tricky in Uganda as statistical prediction has not been fully exploited to determine the likely impact of the disease to the Ugandan population. This is the case for most of the developing countries' health care systems across the globe.