Author: Peter Boldog; Tamas Tekeli; Zsolt Vizi; Attila Denes; Ferenc Bartha; Gergely Rost
Title: Risk assessment of novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreaks outside China Document date: 2020_2_5
ID: ecu579el_25
Snippet: where E is the expectation of the outbreak probabilities; thus, we consider a probability distribution of branching processes. This way Risk x = Risk(C, θ, R loc ), which means that the risk depends on the efficacy of Chinese control measures that influence the cumulative case number C, the connectivity between the index and destination areas θ, and the local reproduction number R loc . The main question we aim to get insight into is how this r.....
Document: where E is the expectation of the outbreak probabilities; thus, we consider a probability distribution of branching processes. This way Risk x = Risk(C, θ, R loc ), which means that the risk depends on the efficacy of Chinese control measures that influence the cumulative case number C, the connectivity between the index and destination areas θ, and the local reproduction number R loc . The main question we aim to get insight into is how this risk depends on these three determining factors.
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