Author: Hui Wan; Jing-an Cui; Guo-Jing Yang
Title: Risk estimation and prediction by modeling the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in mainland China excluding Hubei province Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: 3e1ji2mw_14
Snippet: By body temperature measurements everywhere and diagnoses in hospitals, symptomatic infectious individuals can be detected. The detection rate is assumed to be q 2 I(t). Infected individuals in Q class can be confirmed at the rate of ηQ(t) by nucleic acid testing. Additionally, close contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation is a critical control measure. We assume that, once a case is confirmed, q 3 individuals would be traced. There.....
Document: By body temperature measurements everywhere and diagnoses in hospitals, symptomatic infectious individuals can be detected. The detection rate is assumed to be q 2 I(t). Infected individuals in Q class can be confirmed at the rate of ηQ(t) by nucleic acid testing. Additionally, close contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation is a critical control measure. We assume that, once a case is confirmed, q 3 individuals would be traced. Therefore, q 3 (q 2 I(t) + ηQ(t)) individuals would be traced in a unit time, which is dependent on the number of new confirmed cases q 2 I(t) + ηQ(t). We also assume that, among these traced individuals, S N fraction parts are susceptible, E N fraction parts are exposed, I N fraction parts are infectious with symptoms and A N fraction parts are infectious but asymptomatic. R N fraction parts are recovered, which are not needed to be isolated and are still in the R class.
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