A Computational Model for Estimating the Progression of COVID-19 Cases in the US West and East Coasts

Yao Yu Yeo; Yao-Rui Yeo; Wan-Jin Yeo

We estimate the proportion of pre-tested exposed individuals ρ is set to be 0.1, and the mortality rate c is set to be 0.05 [2, 35] . The basic reproduction rate 0 is specified based on the government response to the outbreak (the three phases); for instance, if a partial shutdown is implemented at time 1 , and then a full shutdown at 2 , we will have 1 ≤ 0 ( 2 ≤ ≤ 250) ≤ 0 ( 1 ≤ ≤ 2 ) ≤ 0 (0 ≤ ≤ 1 ) . In our case, using the estimates obtained in [21] and depending on the coast being studied, we set the first phase 0 (0 ≤ ≤ 1 ) to be either 2.7 or 2.9, the second phase 0 ( 1 ≤ ≤ 2 ) to be either 2.3 or 2.5, and the third phase 0 ( 2 ≤ ≤ 250) = . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.