Author: Qihui Yang; Chunlin Yi; Aram Vajdi; Lee W Cohnstaedt; Hongyu Wu; Xiaolong Guo; Caterina M Scoglio
Title: Short-term forecasts and long-term mitigation evaluations for the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province, China Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: kcb68hue_39
Snippet: Since the outbreak of COVID-19, many studies have emerged to learn how this disease spreads. However, an overwhelming majority of the epidemic models have considered Markov processes, in which the transition between compartments follows an exponential distribution. To the best of the authors' knowledge, very few works have been done incorporating non-Markovian processes to epidemic models with respect to COVID-19. In this section, we take Wuhan C.....
Document: Since the outbreak of COVID-19, many studies have emerged to learn how this disease spreads. However, an overwhelming majority of the epidemic models have considered Markov processes, in which the transition between compartments follows an exponential distribution. To the best of the authors' knowledge, very few works have been done incorporating non-Markovian processes to epidemic models with respect to COVID-19. In this section, we take Wuhan City as a study area and try to demonstrate how distributions of key epidemiological factors can influence the predicted trajectory of the disease spreading.
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