Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? A quantitative prediction of its effects

Jean Roch Donsimoni; René Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Constantin Weiser; Klaus Wälde

where 0 < ; ; < 1 allows for some non-linearity in the process and a > 0: The …rst term N 1 (t) captures the idea that more healthy individuals reduce the individual sickness rate. The second term (N 2 (t) + N 4 (t)) increases the sickness rate when there are more infectious individuals. The parameter describes the fact that individuals that are infected but do not display symptoms (and are therefore in state 4 of our model) nevertheless can infect other individuals. The third term in squared brackets makes sure that the arrival rate is zero when a share of society is sick (state 2) or healthy after infection (state 4).