Simulating the infected population and spread trend of 2019-nCov under different policy by EIR model

Hao Xiong; Huili Yan

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.10.20021519 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 3 The estimate data and the official data from Jan 23 to Feb 7, 2020 Figure 4 shows the epidemic trend of the cumulated exposed number and identified number with average contact number k reduced from 5 to 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 1.852 and 2, which corresponding to quarantined rate 100%, 90%, 80%, 70%, 63%, 60%, after control quarantined measures have been taken from Jan 23, 2020 (t=69, not include 69). Table 3 shows the peak confirmed population and the date. We estimated that, if there are the extremely quarantined measures from Jan 23th 2020, the peak confirmed infected population will be 49093 on Feb.16, 2020. And the epidemics would be eliminated in the end of April. If the prevention measures are relaxed and the quarantined rate is reduced, then the peak number would be substantially increased and the peak date also would be delayed. The epidemics would be controlled and wiped out if average contact number k was reduced less than 1.85, the quarantined rate more than 63%. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.