Analysis of the Worldwide Corona Virus (COVID-19) Pandemic Trend;A Modelling Study to Predict Its Spread

Muhammad Qasim; Waqas Ahmad; Minami Yoshida; Maree Gould; Muhammad Yasir

Our model showed that Japan successfully managed to contain the COVID-19 and stabilised the mean ratio (η) both for new confirmed cases and deaths despite having the earlier cases of COVID-19 and vast quantities of air traffic incoming from neighbouring countries, China, ROK and, of course, the Prince Diamond Cruise Ship outbreak. 19 But the mean ratio (η) is now again showing a trend of progressing cases which could develop into an alarming situation for Japan. It shows that countries which display a good health security index despite of all their government and individual measures, still struggle to contain the virus and took long time to get stabilised their mean ratio (η) whereas countries which are low in health security index, like Iran, are at massive risk for their entire population to become infected with COVID-19. The mean ratio (η) of new cases for Iran is still progressing and more alarming, the death rate mean ratio (η) is showing increased intensity. Our model predicts that if the world community does not assist the countries with a low health security index the virus will cause thousands of deaths in the coming 30 days. Specifically Iran has UN sanctions in place creating a further complicated situation. Recently Iran has applied to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 5 billion USD to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, even Iran secures the loan, they would be unable to get medical supplies as the US sanctions make the any type bank transaction impossible. 27 Our model estimation is based upon WHO reports, however, according to the international media, the actual numbers of cases and deaths in Iran is much higher than official reports. Even with this available data, the set mean ratio (η), the maximum bound limit is indicating that the entire Iranian population is at increased risk of developing the infection. This is a very alarming finding as Iran borders with countries which are war-torn and this infection can run rampant through those countries populations especially, neighbouring countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen and to some extent Pakistan. Pakistan has already reported 887 confirmed cases, 6 deaths and 2,923 suspected cases. 28