Author: Marina Voinson; Alexandra Alvergne; Sylvain Billiard; Charline Smadi
Title: Stochastic dynamics of an epidemics with recurrent spillovers from an endemic reservoir Document date: 2017_11_3
ID: b2f3a8un_61
Snippet: where E is the expectation. By definition, an excursion is considered as an outbreak only if the maximal number of individuals infected at the same time during this excursion is larger than an epidemiological treshold that we have denoted by c. Hence in order to approximate the number of outbreaks we still have to compute the probability for an excursion to be an outbreak. This is a classical result in branching process theory, and can be found i.....
Document: where E is the expectation. By definition, an excursion is considered as an outbreak only if the maximal number of individuals infected at the same time during this excursion is larger than an epidemiological treshold that we have denoted by c. Hence in order to approximate the number of outbreaks we still have to compute the probability for an excursion to be an outbreak. This is a classical result in branching process theory, and can be found in [28] for instance. P (S, β, γ) := P(more than c individuals infected at the same time) = γ/βS − 1 (γ/βS) c − 1 .
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